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Politics

Which country is leaving the EU next? - Greece and Italy headline countries tipped to leave

Thu, 16 March 2017, 9:30

The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union is currently in a state of disarray, but many still believe it will become the first country to leave the international federation, and that others will follow.

Among the frontrunners being tipped to follow the UK out of the EU door comes favourites Greece closely followed by Italy and France, and What Are The Odds has broken down the latest markets on who could be next to go, per William Hill.

The confusion around the United Kingdom’s exit status continues, with a lack of clarity on what stance the British government has on the desired terms of a Brexit. It’s well-founded that activating Article 50 would give the UK a two-year window in which to get their affairs in order before leaving the EU, and Prime Minister Theresa May has set a deadline of March 2017 by which Article 50 should be triggered.

But what of the rest of Europe?

The United Kingdom’s decision to head for the exit door first has encouraged a slew of talk as to who could follow, and Greece along with Italy are the 2/1 (3.00) leaders in that regard, just ahead of another European heavyweight in the form of France.

It’s easy to forget that before there was ever any talk of “Brexit,” the Greeks entered an economic tailspin so disastrous that it was their departure mooted first, and many of their citizens feel the austerity measures placed on their nation by the EU since then are hugely unfair.

France are a bit further back at 7/2 (4.50), but one shouldn’t let the gulf between those two options fool, as a majority of French citizens actually support the idea of holding their own EU referendum, according to a study performed at the University of Edinburgh, via Betfair.

However, it is worth noting that while most were for the idea of a referendum, only 33% voiced the opinion that they would choose to leave, while 44% said they would opt to stay in the European Union.

The Netherlands and Ireland follow in fourth and fifth at respective odds of 7/1 (8.00) and 12/1 (13.0), while Hungary aren't far behind in the matter and are 16/1 (17.0) to follow the UK out of the European Union. As the only English-speaking member now left in the European Union, there is a fear the UK’s exit could have a sort of domino effect for the Irish, who could pose the decision of having their own referendum if their economy is adversely affected in any way.

Next country to leave the EU odds

Germany, the biggest contributor to the European Union’s budget, looks all but impossible to depart next as they’re positioned way out at 40/1 (41.0), while Spain are even less likely as things stand, currently listed at 66/1 (67.0).

At the bottom of the list stands minuscule Luxembourg - with a rough population of 580,000 and needing their ties to the continental trade powerhouse - currently a 150/1 (151.0) punt to take their leave directly after the UK.

Probability of next country to leave the EU

Next Country Next Country to Leave the EU Odds Probability
Greece Next country to leave the EU odds - Greece 2/1 33.33%
Italy Next country to leave the EU odds - Italy 2/1 33.33%
France Next country to leave the EU odds - France 7/2 22.22%
Netherlands Next country to leave the EU odds - Netherlands 7/1 12.50%
Ireland Next country to leave the EU odds - Ireland 12/1 7.69%

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

What Are The Odds is a bettingexpert magazine where we're looking at what bookmaker odds are telling us about real-life stories.

You'll find posts covering everything from odds intelligence on the latest transfer market rumours, the latest developments and most likely outcomes of certain popular events, as well as perspective odds, where we'll compare a number of otherwise incomparable events through odds probability. 

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