Which country is leaving the EU next odds: Greece and Italy headline countries tipped to leave

Tue, 21 November 2017, 10:30

The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union is currently in a state of flux, talks are being held-up and an extra £40bn from the government has apparently been sanctioned to get the whole process moving according to reports.

Among the frontrunners being tipped to follow the UK out of the EU door comes favourites Greece closely followed by Italy. What Are The Odds has broken down the latest on this political market on who could be next to go, per William Hill bookmaker odds.


The United Kingdom’s decision to head for the exit door in 2019 initially led to a slew of talks as to who could follow, and the bookmaker has backed Greece at 2/1 (3.00) along with Italy who are just a little further back at 5/2 (3.50) to follow the UK out of the union.

It’s easy to forget that before there was ever any talk of “Brexit,” the Greeks entered an economic tailspin so disastrous that it was their departure that was mooted first, and many of their citizens feel the austerity measures placed on their nation by the EU since then are hugely unfair.

Sweden are a big mover in this market and are up to 6/1 (7.00) on the next country to leave the EU. There are conflicting media reports of what the mood is among the electorate in the Scandinavian powerhouse, with the Express stating that citizens are dissatisfied with Brussels and want an exit themselves. However, in the Swedish news source The Local it’s quite the opposite where a poll stated 65% are feeling the EU love after watching Brexit unfold.

Another European heavyweight in the form of France was at one point considered a major country considering its future, but that initial fear from the EU has subsided with the election of Emmanuel Macron as President and the odds of 10/1 (11.0) on a ‘Frexit’ are way too big to be considered.

Hungary and Ireland follow in the respective odds, both priced at 12/1 (13.0) to leave the EU next. As the only English-speaking member soon to be left in the European Union, there is a fear the UK’s exit could have a sort of domino effect for the Irish, who could pose the question of having their own EU referendum should their economy be adversely affected in any way - possibly a decision on the Northern Irish open border could play a big part in the future of the country.

Germany, the biggest contributor to the European Union’s budget, looks all but impossible to depart next as they’re positioned way out at 40/1 (41.0), while Spain are even less likely as things stand, currently listed at 66/1 (67.0).

At the bottom of the list stands minnows Luxembourg - with a population of around 580,000, the country relies on their trade deals to the continental powerhouses; the current 150/1 (151.0) punt to exit the union directly after the UK looks like the most unlikely scenario, and one the Brussels hierarchy won’t be losing any sleep over.

Probability of next country to leave the EU

Next Country Next Country to Leave EU Odds Probability
Greece   2/1 33.33%
Italy   5/2 28.57%
Sweden   6/1 14.29%
France   10/1 9.09%
Ireland   12/1 7.69%


What Are The Odds is a bettingexpert magazine where we're looking at what bookmaker odds are telling us about real-life stories.

You'll find posts covering everything from odds intelligence on the latest transfer market rumours, the latest developments and most likely outcomes of certain popular events, as well as perspective odds, where we'll compare a number of otherwise incomparable events through odds probability. 


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