With negotiations set to begin for Britain's ‘Brexit’ from the European Union it has once again raised the debate of whether or not Scotland should seek independence from the UK going forward. What Are The Odds looks at the state of the UK and what could happen.
Scotland are set to push forward, via the SNP, to seek a second independence referendum for which they had originally back in 2014, but lost the vote. Now with Scotland fearing a future outside of the European Union, they look set to go for yet another referendum, despite the first one being billed as a ‘once in a generation vote’.
According to Paddy Power, another referendum on Scottish independence isn’t likely until 2020 (or later) with odds of 1/1 (2.00) being offered. No one believes it’s possible this year, with huge odds of 33/1 (34.0), while 2018 looks very unlikely too at 25/1 (26.0).
But what about the actual outcome? Will Scotland at the second time of asking go for independence? Well, 4/7 (1.57) odds say they will go for independence next time around, with 5/4 (2.25) saying they will stick with the UK again.
Will such a sweeping momentum from Scotland spread to the other membering countries of the UK? Wales have often called for greater powers to be made in the capital of Cardiff rather than in the halls of Westminster, so could the Welsh spring a surprise and call for a referendum of their own? The national party Plaid Cymru has warned that a ‘hard Brexit’ could lead to increased calls for independence, via the Express.
Odds of 1/6 (1.17) on them not calling for a Welsh independence referendum will be comforting for those supporters of the UK, while 7/2 (4.50) on-offer for them to join Scotland in pitching for independence and breaking up the union further.
Northern Ireland are another facing uncertain terms on Brexit, especially with their current border rules allowing free movement with the Republic of Ireland. This could change with Northern Ireland heading out of the EU - which allows free movement. However, at this time there are no calls for their own referendum or an increased taste for some calls on unifying Ireland into one.
Probability of Next Independence Referendum in UK
| Next Country | Next Country to Vote for Independence | Probability | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland |  |
4/7 | 63.64% |
| Wales |  |
7/2 | 22.22% |
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