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Euro 2016 showcased the best Europe has to offer earlier this summer, but in two years’ time, the biggest and best on the planet will descend upon Russia for the 2018 World Cup.

The competition will be the first World Cup hosted in Europe since reigning champions Germany had the honour in 2006, and history suggests South America’s giants could be doomed to fail.

We have crunched the numbers in a bid to reveal how the sizzling superpowers of South America have fared in previous European-based World Cup and what’s to come in Russia.

Year

Host Nation

Winners

Runners-Up

1934

Italy

Italy

Czechoslovakia

1938

France

Italy

Hungary

1954

Switzerland

West Germany

Hungary

1958

Sweden

Brazil

Sweden

1966

England

England

West Germany

1974

West Germany

West Germany

Netherlands

1982

Spain

Italy

West Germany

1990

Italy

West Germany

Argentina

1998

France

France

Brazil

2006

Germany

Italy

France

As the results show, Brazil are the only South American nation to have triumphed in any of the 10 World Cup that have been hosted by a European country to date—taking the top prize in Sweden in 1958—equal to a 10% success ratio.

Furthermore, South American teams appear to struggle in making it to the last hurdle when playing outside the Americas, with Brazil (1958, 1998) and Argentina (1990) the only two teams to have made a World Cup final in Europe.

The ratio doesn’t make for much brighter reading when stretching the criteria to quarter-final qualification, either.

Never has more than one South American nation made it into the last four of any one World Cup based in Europe, with six of a potential 40 quarter-finalists hailing from the continent in total (15%).

UEFA the Dominant Confederation So Far

Year

Host Nation

Winners

Runners-Up

1930

Uruguay

Uruguay

Argentina

1950

Brazil

Uruguay

Brazil

1962

Mexico

Brazil

Czechoslovakia

1970

Chile

Brazil

Italy

1978

Argentina

Argentina

Netherlands

1986

Mexico

Argentina

West Germany

1994

United States

Brazil

Italy

2002

South Korea & Japan

Brazil

Germany

2010

South Africa

Spain

Netherlands

2014

Brazil

Germany

Argentina

Europe’s success isn’t merely limited to home turf anymore, either, as UEFA have proved themselves to be the more successful confederation at each of the last two World Cups, both held outside Europe.

Spain became the first-ever European country to win a World Cup outside its own continent in 2010 after rampaging to victory in South Africa, and Germany upheld followed suit in Brazil four years later.

For 80 years, Europe struggled to contend against the powers of South America in foreign territory, but recent history suggests the tide is turning, although the 2018 showcase in Russia promises to run in their favour.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Statistical Analysis discovers hidden trends and values in major gambling events by deciphering both contemporary stats and historical data. We derive our probabilities from history, not just betting odds, so you don't have to.

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