Statistical Analysis

Kane set to smash Shearer’s all-time Premier League record in 2025/26 season

Thu, 12 October 2017, 13:56

It doesn’t seem so long ago that people didn’t rate Harry Kane, does it?

Written off by many as a ‘one-season wonder’ after bursting onto the scene at Tottenham, the striker has firmly shut even his most vocal critics up through a sheer weight of goals.

His record is remarkable – 84 in 123 Premier League games for Spurs, including two Golden Boots, all before the age of 25.

His 2017 stats outshine even those of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, netting a phenomenal 43 times in 37 games for club and country this calendar year, at an average of one every 72 minutes.

Comparisons with some of the greatest have been inevitable, with Alan Shearer chief amongst them.

The Newcastle legend holds the Premier League all-time record of 260 goals, and it was assumed that the mark set on his retirement in 2006 would struggle to be beaten.

That was until Harry Kane came along, that is.

We’ve crunched the numbers, and found that Kane won’t just beat Shearer’s record, but absolutely demolish it.

Assuming Kane plays 31.5 matches per season (the amount Shearer averaged across his Premier League career) and continues scoring at his current rate of 0.68 goals/game, we’ve found that the Tottenham man should get past Shearer’s 260 sometime in the 2025/26 season.

At the sprightly age of 32, and with the 2026 World Cup to look forward to, Kane would be expected to break the record sometime around Christmas 2025 – a welcome present for the Spurs man.

Indeed, even at that age it’s unlikely he’ll be slowing down (Shearer managed 62 goals in the three seasons immediately after turning 30), and could have some bigger records in sight.

Having played in the pre-Premier League era of the First Division, Shearer can point to his total top-flight goal mark of 283 – but Kane should also surpass that the season after, towards the back-end of 2026/27.

The all-time top-flight goalscoring record is held by Jimmy Greaves, with a man similarly revered by Tottenham fans netting an astonishing 357 English league goals.

If Kane retires at the age of 35, like Shearer, he’ll come up agonisingly close – ending with a projected career of 337 goals in 494 league games.

However, should he carry on (and keep scoring at the rate he has been), he’s due to break Greaves’ record towards the end of the 2027/28 season, at the age of 36.

Another of Greaves’ records could fall on Kane’s march through the history books. The 1966 World Cup winner scored 220 league goals in nine years at White Hart Lane – the most of any Tottenham player in their history.

Whether Kane will be still a Spurs player remains to be seen, but should he stay in white, he should break Greaves’ club record at the age of 30 during 2023/24.

More immediately, however, is Tottenham’s Premier League record, currently held by Teddy Sheringham.

Sitting just 13 goals behind Sheringham, Kane should break it later this season. Who knows, the way he’s going, he might break it this month…

While some may be surprised to see Kane beating Shearer so comfortably, they may not know how far ahead in his career Kane already is.

At the exact same age as Kane is today* (24 years, two months and 14 days), Shearer ‘only’ had 108 club goals in all competitions (compared to 126) – despite playing more times.

Already Britain’s most expensive ever player after his move from Southampton to Blackburn, Shearer was hot property at this point in his career – but not as hot as Kane.

The Tottenham man has two Golden Boots to his name already (Shearer won the first of his three at the age of 25), and has a far better international record as well, playing 23 times and scoring 12 times, compared to Shearer’s five goals in 12 caps.

The fact that Shearer was the exact same age as Kane is now is in October 1994 is something to note as well.

He led Blackburn to glory in the 1994/95 season, scoring 34 goals as Rovers picked up the Premier League title.

It’s certainly not beyond the realms of possibility for Kane to fire Tottenham to the trophy this term – not bad for a ‘one-season wonder’.

Statistical Analysis discovers hidden trends and values in major gambling events by deciphering both contemporary stats and historical data. We derive our probabilities from history, not just betting odds, so you don't have to.

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