Statistical Analysis

Kane is predicted to win another Golden Boot

Mon, 6 March 2017, 16:56

When Tottenham and Everton faced off at White Hart Lane yesterday, for two players at least, it wasn’t just three points that was on their minds.

Harry Kane and Romelu Lukaku came into the match level at the top of the Premier League top-scorers chart, with the pair also tied with Arsenal's Alexis Sanchez on 17 goals.

Kane’s two goals have put him clear in the race for the Golden Boot (with Lukaku moving to 18), with Diego Costa (16 goals for Chelsea), Zlatan Ibrahimovic (15 goals for Manchester United) and Jermain Defoe (14 goals for Sunderland) all enjoying prolific campaigns.

Golden Boot Stats

 

The race for the Golden Boot is always one of the most intriguing sub-plots of the Premier League season – and this year is no different. But who will get their hands on it in May?

All of them will fancy their chances – but Kane’s recent form has seen him shoot up the list.

Already in 2017 he’s scored hat-tricks against West Brom and Stoke, and notched a brace yesterday to take his total to 19.

He is now clear favourite to win the Golden Boot, and boasts the best minutes/goal and shots/goal of any of the contenders, meaning he looks set to extend his advantage.

The Tottenham man missed six weeks in the autumn through injury, and if he is fit for Spurs’ 11 remaining games, he should be able to retain the award he won last season.

Lukaku could run him close, however – the Belgian is only narrowly behind on shots/goal, and has the best shot accuracy of the six. His goals are more important to the Toffees than Kane’s are to Spurs, with Lukaku providing 38.64% of Everton’s goals, compared to just 35.85% for Kane.

The player most valuable to their side, though, is Defoe. While the rest of the players are inside the Premier League’s top seven, Defoe’s Sunderland sit 20th in the table.

The veteran striker has 58.33% of the Black Cats’ goals this term, and keeping Defoe firing will surely be the key if David Moyes’ side are able to escape relegation.

Interestingly, the most wasteful striker on the list is Ibrahimovic, who takes 7.33 shots for each of the goals he scores – something United fans will have rued as the Swede missed countless chances (and a penalty) as the Red Devils drew with Bournemouth on Saturday.

Type of Goals

 

Ibrahimovic’s penalty was just the second he’s taken for United in the league – he scored his first against Southampton in August.

Defoe has been the most successful from the spot with five goals, while Costa and Lukaku haven’t scored any penalties all season, with all of their goals coming from open-play.

Costa is the deadliest from corners (three), but Lukaku and Ibrahimovic are the best in the air, with four headers apiece.

The Swede has three goals from outside the box – the same as Kane, who scored a goal of the season contender against Everton yesterday.

After trading hands a number of times in the early weeks of the season, Diego Costa began to pull away as top goalscorer at around the same time his Chelsea side moved clear at the top of the Premier League.

However, after a mini goal drought in recent weeks, Costa was caught by his attacking rivals, with Kane, Lukaku and Sanchez all moving ahead of the Spanish ace.

Kane’s recovery is remarkable given the time he missed through injury - he was six goals behind the Chelsea forward when he returned from his lay-off in November.

With the Spurs man seemingly in pole position, can hot-shot Harry claim the Golden Boot once again?

Predicted Winner of Golden Boot

 

By studying the fixture list, and the individual’s performances in the reverse matches, we’re able to predict that Kane will finish at the Premier League’s top scorer, with 29 goals.

The Tottenham forward scored eight times in the games earlier this season against the 11 teams Tottenham are yet to play – which includes matches against Bournemouth and Leicester, who he didn’t even feature against.

When adding in the two goals he scored at home against the Cherries last season, we think he’ll end up on top of the pile for his second successive Golden Boot.

It’s bad news for anyone backing Romelu Lukaku – his performances in the fixtures earlier this season yielded just four goals, the lowest of the six contenders.

He takes fifth place, finishing on 22 goals, ahead of Jermain Defoe on 19, who is set to score in five of the 11 remaining games. Will that be enough to keep Sunderland up?

Sanchez’s future at Arsenal seems in doubt after being dropped for the match at Liverpool on Saturday – but if he plays, we expect the Chilean to notch six more times this term, finishing on 23 goals, a fine return from a player who isn’t an out-and-out striker.

Costa and Ibrahimovic are expected to tie for second with 25 goals, though Costa can steal a march as his Chelsea side face West Ham this evening.

We think they’ll get nine more goals in their 12 remaining games, which would cap a fine debut season in England for Ibrahimovic, and surely seal the title for Costa and the Blues.

 

Player

Goals

Games

Goals / Game

Age

1993

Sheringham

22

41

0.54

27

1994

Cole

34

40

0.85

22

1995

Shearer

34

42

0.81

24

1996

Shearer

31

35

0.89

25

1997

Shearer

25

31

0.89

26

1998

Sutton

18

35

0.51

25

1999

Owen

18

36

0.50

19

2000

Philips

30

36

0.83

26

2001

Hasselbaink

23

35

0.66

29

2002

Henry

24

33

0.73

24

2003

V. Nistelrooy

25

34

0.74

26

2004

Henry

30

37

0.81

26

2005

Henry

25

32

0.78

27

2006

Henry

27

32

0.84

28

2007

Drogba

20

36

0.56

29

2008

Ronaldo

31

34

0.91

23

2009

Anelka

19

36

0.53

30

2010

Drogba

29

32

0.91

32

2011

Tevez

20

31

0.65

27

2012

Van Persie

30

38

0.79

28

2013

Van Persie

26

38

0.68

29

2014

Suarez

31

33

0.94

27

2015

Aguero

26

31

0.84

26

2016

Kane

25

28

0.65

22

Average

 

25.96

34.83

0.74

26.13

However, the spoils will go to Kane, who we expect to defend his Golden Boot trophy that he won last season.

The 29 goals we think he’ll score will be his highest in the league, and the most of any winner since Luis Suarez in 2014.

With two Golden Boots by the age of 23, and talk already of hunting down Alan Shearer’s Premier League record of 260, just how many will Tottenham’s star man get in what looks to be a career chock full of goals?

Statistical Analysis discovers hidden trends and values in major gambling events by deciphering both contemporary stats and historical data. We derive our probabilities from history, not just betting odds, so you don't have to.

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