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Statistical Analysis

Betting analysts call election for Trump

Mon, 25 July 2016, 9:40

Smartbets.com calls the US Presidential election in favour of Donald Trump, as the Republican's odds of victory hit a record low. 

We have analysed betting market data and price movement from leading oddsmakers such as Ladbrokes and forecast an election win for Trump, on the basis of a number of trends identified during Convention Week and beyond. 

Trump's betting odds are now mirroring the sharp swing towards Brexit following a period of market volatility (see below), and following the political pundits dismissal of the UK vote, the smartbets.com analysts advise against similar complacency. 

Trump historical oddsBrexit historical odds

Vast swathes of the establishment failed to identify the possibility of Brexit and now that the betting market swing for Trump is mirroring that pattern, we have seen enough, backed up by recent polling to make the call that Trump will be the next president of the United States. 

Despite Clinton still being favourite we believe that many prediction markets have failed to correctly identify again the correct prospect of a victory for the outsider and now that it looks as close as ever, we are prepared to make an early call that he will secure a narrow victory.

Alex Kostin of Smartbets.com: "Many betting markets made the same mistake with Brexit so we think they may be underestimating Trump for similar reasons. The odds now show a movement to the republican which is a sign that prediction markets are catching up, but regardless our money is still on The Donald for POTUS."

Oddsmakers such as Ladbrokes currently indicate that there is a 34% chance of a Trump victory, with Clinton assigned a 64% likelieood of victory.

Presidential election winner

Hillary Clinton 4/9

Donald Trump 7/4

 

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Statistical Analysis discovers hidden trends and values in major gambling events by deciphering both contemporary stats and historical data. We derive our probabilities from history, not just betting odds, so you don't have to.

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