Statistical Analysis

Bad Omens in Leicester City’s Bid for Champions League Glory

Fri, 29 July 2016, 9:48


Spirits are sky-high at the King Power Stadium following Leicester City’s historic Premier League win last season, but recent trends show the English champions have little to look forward to in Europe this term.

Smartbets analysed the numbers, and result suggest Premier League champions just aren’t keeping up with their European peers in continental competition after winning the title.

Stage Reached After Winning Premier League

Number of Teams


Second Round (Old Format)



Second Group Stage



Group Stage



Round of 16















Only one team has ever won the Premier League before going on to win the succeeding season’s Champions League trophy, with Manchester United claiming that honour in 2008, having soared to English glory in 2006-07.

It’s most common for Premier League champions to make it to the quarter-final stage after claiming domestic domination, with six teams exiting the competition in the last eight, accounting for just over a quarter of champions’ results (26%).

Similarly, five teams have made it to the group stage of Europe’s elite competition (22%), while five have booked their spot in the round of 16 before taking their leave of the tournament.

Premier League’s Grip on Europe Severely Loosening

There was a time when England’s powerhouses held a tight grip on the Champions League and were able to contend with the biggest sides on the continent, but that grip appears to be loosening in major fashion.

The last two Premier League winners before Leicester have each exited the Champions League in the round of 16, with Manchester City bowing out at that hurdle in 2014-15 before Chelsea replicated that feat in 2015-16.

It’s also worth noting that since Manchester United booked back-to-back finals in 2008 and 2009, no other Premier League champion has managed to make it past the quarter-final phase of the tournament.

Leicester will have to topple the odds in a major way if they’re to go up agains the best Europe has to offer an emerge victorious, although it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve turned the probabilities in their favour.

Statistical Analysis discovers hidden trends and values in major gambling events by deciphering both contemporary stats and historical data. We derive our probabilities from history, not just betting odds, so you don't have to.


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