Statistical Analysis

£101.8m m to be spent by Premier League clubs on transfer deadline day

Wed, 31 January 2018, 11:15

After a month of speculation, rumours, and big name moves, we’re at the finish line of the January transfer window – transfer deadline day.

Deadline day is one of the biggest days in the footballing calendar (or at least, it is if you’re Jim White) – a day where clubs and players alike panic as they try to get deals across the line.

Who could forget Peter Odemwingie turning up to sit in QPR’s car park?

This year’s January window has already seen records smashed – the likes of Virgil van Dijk and Aymeric Laporte’s moves have pushed Premier League spending past the previous high of £236m in 2012.

But how much more will be spent as we move into the final 24 hours of the day?

Well, according to our research, a remarkable £369.6m will be splashed out by Premier League clubs as they make final additions to their squad.

On average, 27% of the month’s total spending is on the final day of the window, as managers race to add the final pieces of the jigsaw before the 11pm deadline.

With £267.8m spent before today, that means a phenomenal £101.8m will be added today – comfortably beating last year’s mark of £60m.

If certain journalists are to be believed, there’s plenty of deals yet to be done.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s proposed move to Arsenal could be around the £60m mark, which would take up a large chunk of that £101.8m spending.

Aubameyang is caught in a curious standoff between the Gunners, current club Borussia Dortmund, and Chelsea, who are all looking to bring in new strikers.

Dortmund will only sanction his move to Arsenal if they are able to sign a replacement, and are linked to Chelsea’s Michy Batshuayi on loan. However, the Blues will only let Batshuayi leave if they can bring in a striker too – and are strongly linked with Arsenal’s Olivier Giroud.

While there’s sure to be drama, it may not quite match the Premier League’s record January deadline day – the £135m spent in 2011.

That day saw an incredible 57% of the month’s total fees changing hands on the final day, with Chelsea signing Fernando Torres for £50m, and Liverpool picking up Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez for a combined £57m.

The last-minute negotiations for those strikers is very similar to that situation of Aubameyang, Batshuayi and Giroud this time around – though fans will hope any new signings better the modest returns of Torres and Carroll, who are widely thought of as the most expensive flops in Premier League history.

Despite moving for a then British record fee of £50m, the other highly inflated transfer fees that window mean Torres misses out on being the most ‘valuable’ January signing of all time.

Instead, that honour goes to Juan Mata, whose £37.1m move from Chelsea to Manchester United in 2014 was 8.8 times the average cost per player that month.

Adjusting that fee to the current market (where the average player is worth £6.9m), and Mata would be worth £61.5m – the most of any signing prior to the start of this year’s window, not taking into account Virgil van Dijk’s £75m move earlier this month.

The top three spots are all taken by Spanish players. With Torres coming in third, second place belongs to Jose Antonio Reyes, who moved from Sevilla to Arsenal in 2004.

While his £17m fee might appear small fry nowadays, it worked out as a massive 8.4 times the average player 14 years ago, meaning his fee today would be a whopping £58.6m.

Also high up the list are Ashley Young, who’s £9.7m move from Watford to Aston Villa would now be worth £47.4m, and Louis Saha, who would have cost £44.2m had his transfer from Fulham to Man United happened this year.

Player Year Fee (£) x Average Player Now? (£)
Juan Mata 2014 37,100,000 8.8 61,569,827
Jose Antonio Reyes 2004 17,000,000 8.4 58,620,466
Fernando Torres 2011 50,000,000 7.6 53,188,254
Ashley Young 2007 9,650,000 6.8 47,357,384
Louis Saha 2004 12,820,000 6.3 44,206,728
Wilfried Bony 2015 28,000,000 5.8 40,620,058
Juan Cuadrado 2015 26,100,000 5.4 37,863,697
Jonathan Woodgate 2003 9,000,000 5.4 37,692,594
Andy Carroll 2011 35,000,000 5.3 37,231,777
Nemanja Matic 2014 21,000,000 5 34,850,845
Edin Dzeko 2011 31,500,000 4.8 33,508,600
Nicolas Anelka 2008 15,000,000 4.5 31,572,506
Darren Bent 2009 18,000,000 4.3 30,073,264
Nigel de Jong 2009 18,000,000 4.3 30,073,264
Gabriel Jesus 2017 27,000,000 3.9 27,000,000
Jermain Defoe 2009 15,750,000 3.8 26,314,106
Giannelli Imbula 2016 18,300,000 3.6 25,145,738
Andrey Arshavin 2009 15,000,000 3.6 25,061,053
Andrey Arshavin 2009 15,000,000 3.6 25,061,053
Luis Suarez 2011 22,800,000 3.5 24,253,844
Jean Alain Boumsong 2005 8,000,000 3.5 24,116,393
Craig Bellamy 2009 14,000,000 3.4 23,390,316
David Luiz 2011 21,000,000 3.2 22,339,066
Nemanja Vidic 2006 7,000,000 2.9 20,428,313
Morgan Schniederlin 2017 20,000,000 2.9 20,000,000
Manolo Gabbiadini 2017 14,600,000 2.1 14,600,000

The madness of deadline day shows no sign of stopping – and there’s bound to be plenty of money spent before the window slams shut this evening. With managers famed for overspending on last-minute deals, whether anyone is able to pick up a bargain remains to be seen…

Statistical Analysis discovers hidden trends and values in major gambling events by deciphering both contemporary stats and historical data. We derive our probabilities from history, not just betting odds, so you don't have to.

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